Will this get any easier? Based on how the specialist NFL analysts of Bleacher Report are currently faring this season, it certainly can not get much tougher.
Picking at every game, Brent Sobleski, Brad Gagnon and Gary Davenport had yet another run in Week 12, falling their record to 251-259-18. Individually and as a team, here is the harm through 12 months (last week’s records in parentheses):
1. Gary Davenport: 92-78-6 (7-8)
2. Brent Sobleski: 81-89-6 (7-8)
3. Brad Gagnon: 78-92-6 (5-10)
Consensus picks: 83-87-6 (7-8)
Together with December looming, we requested longtime sports gambling advisor Dave Tuley if there might be some light at the end of the tunnel for the betting public or if the sportsbooks will continue to gain from larger samples in the season.
Tuley gave us some hope, but not enough to get removed.
“There was a time under a dozen years ago where I had a bunch of years in a row where I simply killed it the next half of the year and in December,” he said. “At the moment, I felt as though it was only the time of year when the great teams were overrated and the terrible teams were being underrated, and with parity what it had been, the underdogs were performing a lot better at that time.”
However, Tuley notes that neither the books nor the bettors have encountered advantages that are significant . “As much as bettors wish to believe that we’re becoming smarter the more people see these teams play,” he said,”obviously the oddsmakers are seeing the very same things we are, and they’re adjusting and making it tough also.”
But he still believes it’s likely to pick out lines that were exaggerated by midseason slumps. In particular, he pointed at the 7.5-point distribute in favor of this New Orleans Saints in a road matchup with the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.
With that lineup, oddsmakers are suggesting the Saints would be favored by as many as 13 or 14 points if that game were in New Orleans, which will appear high considering the Cowboys are riding a three-game winning series.
“That is [a manifestation of] how the Saints have been playing,” Tuley said. “For the books to balance their actions, they must put it at that number.”
It is something to remember as we enter the 2018 season’s last month. It may not save your entire year but any guidance helps, if you’ve been following us annually.
Here is what Davenport, Gagnon and Sobleski are considering heading to the initial 16-game slate in two or more months.
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